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As it is, they now know he is committed across the river at City Hall until his term finishes in 2016, or at least they think he is. If Boris can find a way of getting a seat at the next election, and combining it with the tail end of his mayoralty, he will surely do so.

For the chancellor, whose leadership ambitions have been dealt what should be seen as a fatal blow by the disastrous reaction to his recent Budget, the eventual return of Boris will be problematic. Osborne cannot be leader. At a gathering of normal non-politically-obsessed people, try mentioning the thought that he might one day hold the top job and watch the reaction.

That means the chancellor's best hope after Cameron is to try and become a king-maker and then retain his exalted position in the hierarchy. He may have to choose between backing Boris or gambling on a rival such as Education Secretary Michael Gove being strong enough to win by that point. Other Conservatives, from the excellent last two parliamentary intakes, may by then also fancy a run at the leadership, pitting Boris's star power against their earnest and commendable hard work on policy and ideas. None of this wrangling is as far off as it might sound. If Cameron loses the next election the Tories will be choosing a leader three years from now, and even if he wins he is determined to avoid going on much beyond the middle of the next parliament.

His critics frequently say that Boris has no discernible following in the parliamentary Tory party, but many MPs care most of all about holding on to their seats. If there is a sense that enough of Britain buys Boris, then when the moment comes there will be MPs who sign up. 

The danger for the country, and the Tories, is that all of this is seen through the prism of celebrity and personal ambition, when there are such vast economic, constitutional and cultural challenges confronting the nation.

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Forlornehope
July 28th, 2012
10:07 AM
Well, for all that, just look at the alternative Prime Ministers: Osborne, Gove, Miliband. An energetic, highly intelligent maverick who can put a smile on peoples' faces doesn't seem too bad an idea.

Richard Blogger (@richardblogger)
July 27th, 2012
11:07 AM
So you're saying that Cameron only wants (at most) one and a half terms? That means that he's only a half-Blair. If Cameron loses the 2015 election (whether that is "lost" as in the 2010 election, or lost as in Labour gets a majority) the Tory party will go back to civil war. The "get Boris" campaign will be strong. After the shambles that is Cameron/Osborne my guess is that the party will go for someone seen as competent, and that can only be Hague or Hammond. The latter is more likely since he's already been tried and failed. However, I think Milliband has a lot to be scared of with Boris. Yes, Milliband will be well prepared for 2015 and Boris will just wing it. Yes, Milliband will have no skeletons but Boris will have cupboards full of them. The problem for Milliband is that Boris is his antithesis. Who would people want to go to the pub with or allow to kiss their baby? Milliband or Boris? Basically that is the more important question in people's minds when voting at a general election than who can get growth back.

Philip Arlington
July 25th, 2012
4:07 AM
Nothing that David Cameron does is convincing. Only those immersed in the naval-gazing world of Westminster could ever have imagined he would be an effective leader, but who else have they got? Michael Gove is as inept as the Chancellor, but lucky in that he has a less high profile job. The current system doesn't attract men and women of calibre, with the result that of all the top politicians are almost always under pressure due to their obvious inadequacy. Does anyone whatsoever truly benefit from this permanent shambles of a political culture?

Philip Arlington
July 25th, 2012
3:07 AM
There is no-one near the top of British politics that anyone with any sense would "trust with the mortgage" so that is a nonsensical argument against Boris's chances. As for Bulldog's comments about Boris not having a constituency, he won more personal votes than anyone else in British politics. If he can win London, he can win the whole of southern England. Add some rural constituencies elsewhere, and that is more than half of the UK.

Bulldog Driscol
July 5th, 2012
8:07 AM
Having Boris for PM is wishful thinking by the politically incorrect rugby players of yester-year. Bo-Jo is the last of the patrician Tories, educated, a classicist and a man of letters. As such he has no accessible constituency in modern politics. However his Wodehousian prose and humour has tremendous resonance with the cowed British public.

Anonymous
July 3rd, 2012
10:07 AM
"I have no idea what he believes in other than himself," says a prominent Conservative." Funnily enough that's exactly what could be said about one David Cameron.

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